The debate over the size of launch vehicles is a fascinating one, and a recent study by The Aerospace Corporation has added fuel to the fire. The study argues that while bigger launch vehicles may promise economies of scale, there's a point where increased size can lead to higher costs and reduced efficiency. This is a crucial finding, as it challenges the notion that bigger is always better in the space industry.
The report introduces the concept of 'super heavy lift' (SHL) rockets, which can place at least 50 metric tons into low Earth orbit. SpaceX's Falcon Heavy and NASA's Space Launch System are examples of operational SHL vehicles. However, the study raises a cautionary tale with the Falcon Heavy, which has flown only 12 times since its introduction in 2018. This low usage rate questions the market demand for even larger SHL rockets with greater lift capacity.
The study uses the analogy of the Airbus A380, a superjumbo airliner that was a technical success but a commercial disappointment due to higher costs and reduced competitiveness. This analogy highlights the potential pitfalls of excessive scale, where complexity and reduced agility can outweigh the benefits. The report suggests that markets for SHL rockets, such as broadband constellations and orbital data centers, may not have fully developed, and the question remains: when will these markets emerge to drive the demand needed for SHL launch costs?
The study also emphasizes the importance of standardization and internal customers. SpaceX and Blue Origin's broadband and orbital data center constellations can help drive standardization of payload designs. The initial market for SHL rockets is likely to be megaconstellations with a regular launch cadence, serving as a foundation for proven commercial success and unlocking the potential for future developments.
In conclusion, this study serves as a reminder that the space industry is not immune to the pitfalls of scale. While bigger launch vehicles may offer advantages, there's a delicate balance to be struck. The industry must carefully consider the market demand, operational complexity, and economic factors to ensure that the pursuit of larger rockets is a sustainable and successful venture.
