The world is watching as Ukraine, Russia, and the US prepare for a critical round of trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi. This is a pivotal moment in the ongoing conflict, with hopes for a peaceful resolution hanging in the balance.
The Spirit of Anchorage
In a recent interview, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the war's endgame hinges on territorial issues. Russia's position, as articulated by Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, is that any peace deal must adhere to the 'Anchorage formula,' a reference to the 28-point plan discussed during the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska last year. This plan, which favored Moscow's demands, proposed ceding the Donetsk Oblast region to Russia and reducing Ukraine's army to 600,000 personnel.
However, an updated 20-point plan, negotiated with US and European leaders, emerged in December. This draft, described by Zelensky as the 'main framework for ending the war,' proposes a freeze on the line of contact in the east, creating a demilitarized free economic zone. It also includes security guarantees for Ukraine and a military of 800,000.
Ukraine's Crunch Time
For Ukraine, these talks are a make-or-break moment. As Sarah Rainsford, Eastern Europe correspondent, explains, Ukraine has actively engaged with Donald Trump's White House-led peace efforts because it cannot defend itself against Russian aggression without US support. From Kyiv's perspective, these initial trilateral talks are a critical juncture.
The focus will be on US security guarantees for Ukraine, and Zelensky wants to see if Moscow is genuinely committed to peace or merely playing a game. Ukraine suspects the latter, as Russian missile and drone attacks on civilian energy infrastructure have intensified amid a bitterly cold winter, with Vladimir Putin attempting to freeze Ukraine into submission.
The key stumbling block remains land, with Russia demanding areas it has failed to win on the battlefield. Zelensky has drawn a firm line in the eastern Donbas region, a redline he is adamant he won't cross.
What to Expect
Today's talks in the Middle East are a fresh opportunity for progress. A Ukrainian delegation is meeting with US and Russian officials in the United Arab Emirates, marking the first time all three parties have gathered since Moscow's full-scale invasion nearly four years ago. The agenda is focused on US security guarantees for Ukraine and the creation of a demilitarized zone in the east.
However, several key questions remain unanswered. Will the negotiators from the US, Russia, and Ukraine be in the same room during the talks? When will the meeting commence? And most importantly, will today's discussions yield any concrete results? While Zelensky has expressed optimism about a 20-point US plan to end the war, sticking points over land remain.
A Former Trump Official's Perspective
Robert Wilkie, who served as veterans affairs secretary in the first Trump administration, is not optimistic about the negotiations. He believes Putin is committed to seeing this through to the end, with the only potential outcome being a massive defeat on the battlefield. Wilkie's former colleague, Keith Kellogg, was frustrated that people didn't take Putin's word seriously, given his long-standing desire to subsume Ukraine.
The Big Picture
As the world watches these critical talks, it's important to remember the broader context. The United Arab Emirates is hosting these negotiations, which officials describe as the first meeting attended by all three countries since the invasion began. The US is represented by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow before heading to Abu Dhabi. Meanwhile, in Davos, the World Economic Forum continues, with world leaders discussing a range of global issues.
A Diplomatic Day in Davos
Thursday was a busy day of diplomacy in Davos, Switzerland, with world leaders gathering for the annual World Economic Forum. Trump launched his new Board of Peace, a body with the potential to be 'one of the most consequential ever created,' according to the US president. However, UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper expressed concerns about Russian President Vladimir Putin's participation, and none of the UN Security Council's permanent members have committed so far.
Trump also met with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky, and they agreed on a document outlining security guarantees, which still needs to be signed and ratified by national parliaments.
Late-Night Meeting in Moscow
Top US negotiators held late-night talks in Moscow with President Vladimir Putin, discussing a US-drafted plan to end the Ukraine war. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov described the talks as 'frank,' but Russia continues to push territorial issues as a prerequisite for a peace deal. Before heading to Moscow, US envoy Steve Witkoff expressed optimism, believing the one major issue dividing the sides was 'solvable.'
A Peace Deal in Sight?
Speaking to reporters on his way back from Davos, President Trump expressed belief that both Russian and Ukrainian presidents now want to make a deal. Zelensky confirmed that the issue of land remains unsolved but expressed hope that today's trilateral talks might provide 'variants.'
The pace of diplomacy has certainly accelerated, but the US security guarantees won't be signed immediately. They will need to be ratified by the US Congress and the Ukrainian parliament, and their exact nature remains unknown. Kyiv had initially sought up to 50 years of iron-clad US commitment to aid Ukraine in the event of an attack, but this was always an optimistic ask.
Zelensky is convinced that without a Trump 'backstop,' the Coalition of the Willing, led by the UK and France, will not be sufficient.
As we build up to the Abu Dhabi talks, stay tuned for updates on this critical diplomatic effort.
